Investment & Market Intelligence

The Investor

The Signal

Only 13% of US power capacity queued from 2000 to 2020 was running by end-2025.

Another 549 GW sits under signed interconnection agreements and still isn't operating, which is awkward arithmetic when a data center campus takes roughly eighteen months to build. Which means any mark underwritten on announced megawatts is really a five-year bet on on-site gas, and the sponsors' own filings say as much. The bull case assumes the queue clears in time; Georgia's docket adds a litigation fight the current marks assume away.

In Play

  1. Interconnection Queue Attrition Reprices Data Center Marks

    Berkeley Lab data show that of all US generation capacity entering interconnection queues from 2000 to 2020, only 13% was operating by the end of 2025. A further 549 GW holds a draft or executed interconnection agreement and still is not running, and 2025's completions waited a median of more than five years. For your data center and neocloud marks, announced pipeline megawatts describe a queue position rather than delivered power. Anything on the wrong side of that gap carries implicit gas exposure for its first half-decade.

  2. Valuation Methodology Becomes a Legal Document

    The Justice Department opened a probe into how BlackRock's TCP Capital valued its assets, after the fund cut net asset value 19% in January and a further 5% in May. Separately, KPMG warned a subsidiary of Guggenheim's $367bn asset manager over internal-control deficiencies tied to how it recognized hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue, following a whistleblower complaint, per the Financial Times. Valuation methodology has moved from an audit conversation to a discoverable legal record, and your Q3 letters ship into that.

  3. Inference Margin Is Set in the Checkpoint, Not in Ops

    Anthropic cut cache-read pricing 75%, which it estimates lowers typical workload cost by roughly 25% and more on agentic work. Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 scores 61 on the independent Artificial Analysis index at $1.25 and $4.25 per million tokens, against GPT-6 Astra's $10 and $50 for capability that index cannot distinguish. Yet Claude Fable 5.1's cost per task rose about 20% generation over generation anyway. Per-token price has stopped predicting portfolio gross margin.

  4. Youth Sports Growth Is Price, Not Players

    Family spending on youth sports rose 46% between 2019 and 2024 while one in five parents limited or ended a child's participation, in a market the Aspen Institute sizes at $40B a year. KKR's Varsity Brands, the sector's flagship outcome, went from $1.5B in 2014 to $4.5B in 2024 and paid $82.5M to settle anticompetitive allegations along the way. Growth here is average revenue per family rather than volume, and Senator Chris Murphy is drafting private-equity restrictions into the same window 2020-2022 vintages need liquidity.

  5. The Verification Layer Is Fully Documented and Still Unfunded

    Netflix published its complete production LLM-judge lifecycle: rubric tuning that treats a right answer for the wrong reason as its own error class, a Meta-Judge comparing the judge's rationale to a human rater's, and drift bands calibrated against human inter-rater spread. It shipped no product. ServiceNow's AgentJudgeBench found judge alignment degrades on hard tasks, and Qwen's E-Commerce Bench showed agent profitability across 18 models does not correlate with fraud avoidance or negotiation quality. Enterprises cannot verify agent behaviour, which caps agent revenue expansion regardless of model capability.

Deep Dives

  1. Announced Megawatts Are a Milestone, Not a Delivery Date

    The sector's favorite valuation input is a queue position with an 87% historical failure rate, and the workaround — on-site gas — now carries litigation risk that can strand a campus mid-ramp.

    Why the gap fills with gas Clean generation needs five-plus years to energize and a data center campus takes roughly eighteen months to build, which settles the fuel mix before anyone gets to argue about policy preference. Georgia is the…

    3 action items

  2. The DOJ Is Now Reading Valuation Methodology

    Auditors, whistleblowers and prosecutors have converged on one seam — value recognized ahead of cash — and the next limited-partner questionnaire will ask who validates your marks and what changed.

    What discoverability actually changes A markdown is an outcome. A methodology is a process with documents, dates and named owners, and processes are producible under subpoena. That is the escalation at TCP Capital : down 25% year to date, minus…

    3 action items

  3. Your Portfolio's Inference Margin Was Decided at Model Selection

    A 75% cache-read price cut and a near-frontier tier at one-eighth the price have both been announced, yet cost per task still rose at the capability leader.

    Two kinds of numbers show up in any serving-stack write-up. The kind somebody measured under stated conditions, and the kind somebody half-remembers from a docs page they cannot find again. The vLLM claims in this passage are mostly the first…

    3 action items

  4. The $40B Youth Sports Comp Nobody Runs the Math On

    One sub-segment in this sector is adding households instead of extracting from them, and the constraint on its growth is a referee shortage nobody has funded.

    The demand curve, decomposed Start with the tailwind, which is real and does not run backwards: post-2008 and pandemic-era cuts to municipal parks and recreation budgets pushed free participation into paid channels, and public fields do not come back on…

    3 action items

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